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Split Analysis

Billygoat Run: Billygoat

jjcote

median leg score: 79.9
calculated time lost: 1:38 (+1.3%)

splitcumulative total
#disttimeplacedeltascorelost*pace  dist  timeplacedeltapace comments
1. 964m 7:30 15 +1:08 18% 85.5 7:46   964m 7:30 15 +1:08 18% 7:46 Followed the crowd taking the bridge across the Strait of Lake Bray. I think a better move would have been to stay on the SE shore and cross the stream much closer to the control. The attack point might have been weak, but the line of people would have made finding the control pretty easy.
2. 651m 7:25 14 +58 15% 87.8 11:23   1615m 14:55 15 +2:02 16% 9:14 Trudging up the hill following the crowd, and looking at skips. Considered 5, 10, 14, 16, 18, and 20.
3. 730m 9:00 11 +2:24 36% 80.8 12:19   2345m 23:55 12 +4:16 22% 10:11 Still trudging with the crowd, pretty much on the line. As we approached the control, Boris, Kenny, Clem, and company were heading out, apparently skipping #4.
4. 465m 6:29 9 +1:47 38% 79.9 13:56   2810m 30:24 10 +6:03 25% 10:49 Still just going with popular opinion, and I'm pretty sure we went over one little knob that we didn't need to, could have gone around it.
5. 716m 6:51 6 +1:38 31% 77.3 9:34   3526m 37:15 12 +7:38 26% 10:33 A little behind everybody else, and took a route more to the right than they did. Went right to avoid the reentrant and picked up the trail through the green, and at the T junction, I contoured over to the ski slope to avoid the rock. Popped out just above the alpine slide remnant, and ran down the fiberglas channel. Boris, Kenny, etc. were coming up after having skipped #4, meaning that it basically did them no good at all (I believe they got lost en route). Came into the control from the SW, and saw the crowd ahead of me.
6. 453m 6:09 12 +1:04 21% 84.5 13:34   3979m 43:24 20 +11:54 38% 10:54 Still more trudging. Could see a lot of people up ahead on the ski slope, and some people coming in after having skipped #5.
7. 467m 4:05 17 +1:02 34% 76.9 8:44   4446m 47:29 19 +12:56 37% 10:40 Behind Ken Walker Sr. and Phil Bricker, both of whom had (I think) skipped already.
8. 177m 1:48 10 +29 37% 79.3 10:10   4623m 49:17 16 +13:25 37% 10:39
9. 209m 1:58 7 +34 40% 79.1 9:24   4832m 51:15 18 +13:50 37% 10:36 I think I saw Kristin up ahead, and that's the last I ever saw of the pack ahead of me. Hmm, but looking at the splits, I guess it couldn't have been Kristin.
10. 1593m 14:51 17 +3:58 36% 73.7 1:08 9:19   6425m 1:06:06 19 +17:48 37% 10:17 Stopped to take a leak, then down to the trail, and cut straight through on one loop, which got me ahead of Phil. At the T junction, instead of going straight (which would have been faster), I turned left and followed the trail for maybe 400 m, then cut right and read my way through the detail. Ken and Phil were still behind me, but this is the last I ever saw of them. Sanna was just ahead of me, and John Goodwin, Peggy, and Marek Polinski (I think) arrived around the same time.
11. 1890m 20:52 18 +4:12 25% 80.0 11:02   8315m 1:26:58 19 +21:59 34% 10:27 Running parallel to those three, and went pretty much straight at it. Overtook Jeff Schapiro around the road crossing. Wasn't sure where I was on the other side of the road, until I saw the patio furniture (black X) and realized I was dead on the line. About 250 m before the control, I opted to go left around the last hill, and encountered JoeMok. The saddle and small marsh were really beautiful, and made that route worth it, even though Peggy, John, and Marek went right around the hill and got ahead of me.
12. 138m 2:09 15 +53 70% 60.7 30 15:34   8453m 1:29:07 16 +22:52 35% 10:32 Spent 40 seconds drinking, then headed off behind the crowd.
13. 195m 1:33 9 +12 15% 88.9 7:56   8648m 1:30:40 16 +14:56 20% 10:29 Overtook John.
14. 819m 8:44 3 +10 2% 99.2 10:39   9467m 1:39:24 14 +24:15 32% 10:29 Was with the crowd until halfway, when we went by a cigar-shaped knoll that's just NW of the line. I used this feature to great advantage in the 1986 Goat, and seeing it was like greeting an old friend. Took a higher line than Peggy and Marek, and never saw them again. Very smooth running along the bench, and I pulled away from Joe. Bernie apparently saw me near the control, but I didn't see him, and never saw any of that crowd again.
15. 717m 7:25 8 +1:35 27% 87.4 10:20   10184m 1:46:49 10 +27:46 35% 10:29 Clean reading down to the road, to the right around the cliffs, and in.
16. 758m 5:40 10 +1:11 26% 80.6 7:28   10942m 1:52:29 15 +28:57 35% 10:16 By this time I had talked myself out of skipping #16, though I still think it would have been a fine choice. Blasted down the hill, and caught sight of Bob Lux up ahead of me when I got to the bridge. Punched close behind him. Thought I heard someone else behind me, but couldn't see who it was.
17. 541m 3:40 12 +51 30% 79.8 6:46   11483m 1:56:09 14 +29:48 35% 10:06 Slowly gaining on Bob during the road run; when I passed him he asked if I was going straight across the marsh from #17 to #18. I said that I was going straight across to #19, and he seemed to lose a little spirit and drop off the pace. As I got to the control, I saw that my pursuer was Ted Good, but he had apparently skipped already.
18. 519m ? -- -- -- 0.0 -- --   12002m ? -- -- -- -- Skip!
19. 433m 4:20 -- -- -- 0.0 -- --   12435m 2:00:29 -- +27:19 29% 9:41 Got across the marsh completely dry, by crossing two streams on convenient logs. Lower back hurting as I climbed the hill.
20. 637m 4:12 11 +55 28% 80.3 6:35   13072m 2:04:41 12 +21:28 21% 9:32 At the building near the control, saw John Hansman coming in from the SW. I was guessing that he opted to go around the marsh from #17, but he was actually skipping #17. Came across the lawn with perfect timing to see Peter and Clint sprinting to the finish line. Looked across the lake for the last control, but couldn't see it. As I made the turn onto the peninsula, saw David Onkst and Sanna coming out.
21. 288m 1:27 13 +24 38% 79.3 5:02   13360m 2:06:08 15 +28:43 29% 9:26 Joe Brautigam and Gari Williams were just leaving the parking lot as I got back to it, so there was no need to sprint, as nobody was close enough ahead or behind to make a difference.

* red = reported, gray = calculated

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