Discussion: Friendly wager, may be.

I think, this is going to be quite competitive Red X course/class coming weekend.
I propose the following, each of us comes with the guess, how much he loose/win in comparison to Hammer's result on a day, to a minute. Of course, if you are up to it.
You can come up with the scoring system (you are smarter than me) and pick the prize, I will come along.

Prize: loser buys Ian a burrito? :D

Ha-ha, I knew that was coming :))

So wait, am I predicting your difference from Hummer's time, or my own? And I think this all depends on which Hummer shows up...

Each of us predicts own performance vs Hammer.

Do you mean Hammer?

Ok. The rules are that Ian has to buy the winner a burrito.

False. But I'm curious whether BurisGr or DarthButler will prevail.

I like the rules ;)

Sounds like I have an opportunity to game the system here. But some info to help your predictions:

Letchworth is only 2.5 hours from my house so I can drive Saturday morning and I've raced there a lot over the years

I'll be in Toronto at Cirque du Soleil LATE on friday night.

My O shoes are at my cottage. Oops.

I don't run well on hot days or in hilly open terrain (I need flat,
thick, rocky and technical to do well)

I'll be eating bottomless fries at Red Robin on saturday night.

I've only run longer than an hour two times since the spring.

:-)

Anyway will be fun to catch up.

Since Boris is a busy father these days, I propose the following, each day we start with 100 points, and error of prediction rounded to minutes is subtracted from 100 for that day score score. Two days - one prize (Ian, be a game, donate a burrito).

And, here are my guesses:

Day one: Hammer - DarthBalter = - 6 min,
Day two: Hammer - DarthBalter = - 4 min.

In case of a tie, I will buy a burrito for Ian. :)

(When in Rochester, buy burritos here.)

I hope balter wins... I have to drive 6+ hours in a car with boris on Sunday.

Ok. Day 1: Hammer - Boris = -2 min
Day 2: Hammer - Boris = +1-min

too kind Boris. too kind.

Day 1: Ian_time - Hammer_time = 20 minutes
Day 2: Ian_time - Hammer_time = 22 minutes

I suspect on Sunday, we will likely be driving home directly from Letchworth rather than stopping by John's for logistical reasons. Maybe we could postpone the burrito exchange to QOC? If you both are amenable (since you seem to want me to buy a burrito), I suggest we make it a 3-way wager with both losers buying a burrito for the winner.

Am I missing some important part of the mathematics here? Isn't Hammer's time completely irrelevant as a reference point, since it just drops out of the equations if one simply subtracts H-DB=x from H-BG=y, then we have DB-BG=y-x ? At least it lets Hammer feel relaxed about his performance, since it won't affect whose burrito Ian is paying for!

I think you're missing two parts:
First, it's error of prediction; the score (for Boris, say) is (H - BG) - prediction.
Second, it's absolute value: |(H-BG) - prediction|

Mmm...burritos. This is an inspired challenge!

Stop! Hammer_time

First prize: Burritos!
Second prize: a set of stake knives
Third prize?
Are there actual athletes racing in the elite categories?

Just to start this, I think Alex Bergstrom will sweep and no clue on F21.

Hammer as true orienteer will be unbiased in this, at least I believe it.

Third prize: Hammer time

Also, for the record, I'm betting on Boris. Good luck guys!

And Day 1 scores are:
Hammer Time - DarthBalter Time = -10 , Balter sores 96 points.
Hammer Time - BorisGr Time = 5, Boris Scores 93 points.

Good race Boris, interesting to see how it goes tomorrow. I bonked hard with about 2 km to go, walked a lot, but, I think, I was not the only one.

is it too late to enter this event? I love burritos. I would have wagered H=J

H - J = 13s

actually that would be [-13s]. great weekend old goats. I hope I see you all at Burnt MT.

Yes -13s.

Nice to see rickety old BGr back on top. Well done!

Day 2 scores are:
Hammer Time - DarthBalter Time = -6 , Balter sores 98 points.
Hammer Time - BorisGr Time = 4, Boris Scores 97 points.

Total scores for 2 days:
DarthBalter - 194 (got to pet myself on a back)
BorisGr - 190, it is good to know you are in better shape than you think you are, at least relative to Hammer.

Thanks for involving me in your wager. I likely wouldn't have started on Sunday otherwise. Sadly I won't be at any other races in the US this year

This was pretty fun. Good idea, Darth! Good luck collecting your burrito from Ian... I still haven't seen the one he owes me for the Patriots loss.

Since I do not like burritos, I will have to come up with another form of punishment for Ian, whether he likes it or not :). It is probably going to be a dare challenge.
As far as feather challenges, creativity is the limit, as long as they are friendly.

And Boris, If all stays good, It will be nice to see you running Blue at US champs later this fall, but not before you are fully ready.

@Hammer: thank you for being such a good sport in that, I never stop being impressed by your determination in racing and dedication to our sport. ( I can kiss ass once in a while, too :)

Maybe the feather challenge will be here?

Sadly I won't be at any other races in the US this year

Really? Not even the no-longer-annual Hudson Highlander?

BTW, OCIN will be having a WinterPig this year...

Since I do not like burritos...

Unsubscribe.

Since I do not like burritos...

Unsubscribe.

I still haven't seen the one he owes me for the Patriots loss.

In my defense, when was the last time we were at a burrito store? I actually also owe Kseniya one from Superbowl 50, but with the same problem. Maybe I should just hand out Chipotle gift cards.

I like burritos and will occasionally drink PBR.

Nice runs man! Good to see you having fun on the woods again!